When Private Violence Leads to Public Violence

A 2008 study shows how a single private death threat is all that is needed to be a predictor of eventual physical violence against the public. The study, entitled "Threats to kill: a follow-up study" (L.J. Warren, et al.), published in Psychological Medicine, reports that within 10 years of the initial threat, 44.4% of death threateners eventually committed acts of physical violence against others, including homicide, attempted murder, assault, stalking, and rape.

Furthermore, this physical violence wasn’t limited to the original threat victims. In fact, of the instances just noted, the original threat victims who became subsequent victims of the threatener totaled only 13.9%. The study therefore makes this simple conclusion: “threats to kill emerge as a harbinger of violence” – a harbinger of physical violence committed not just against the one initially threatened, but against anyone.

An example of this is Highland Park, Illinois mass shooter Robert Crimo. On July 4, 2022 he opened fire on crowds of people attending an Independence Day parade, killing seven people and wounding dozens more. Crimo had no violent criminal history up to this point, but were there other predictors of physical violence? Apparently there were. According to Reuters, in 2019 police were notified of a death threat that Crimo had made against his family, threatening "to kill everyone." Then, true to form according to the Warren study, he acted out with physical violence within 10 years of his initial threat. And also true to form according to the Warren study, the death threat was uttered against his family; the physical violence, however, was not directed at his family at all but against others, against the public.

Photo Sources: CNN, Highland Park Police Department